Evacuation Ingress/Egress Risk Assessment

A state-of-the-science review and evacuation risk assessment to understand the causes of civilian fatalities during wildfire evacuations

California has experienced a growing number of wildfires involving extreme weather, wind conditions, and fuel (vegetation) loads that can overwhelm community preparedness and evacuation plans. The Evacuation Ingress/Egress Risk Assessment and accompanying maps viewer was undertaken to understand and address the risks associated with evacuation routes in Marin County. Evacuation risks are defined as factors that hinder timely evacuation and the ability to arrive at a safe location. For example, risk factors include lack of access to a vehicle, failure to receive notifications due to cellular zones, heavy traffic burdens, etc. This information will help agencies identify areas of concern, policies and mitigation actions that can reduce risks associated with evacuation.

A state-of-the-science review and subsequent evacuation risk assessment was conducted to understand the causes of civilian fatalities during wildfire evacuations and the associated risk factors. The findings reinforce a central tenet of wildfire emergency response: in most cases, evacuation is the safest option for residents even if the roadways used for evacuation are impacted by nearby fire or smoke. Most civilian fatalities happen when people try to flee an area threatened by wildfire without enough time to arrive at a safe location. Studies show some people are hesitant or unable to evacuate, leaving them vulnerable.

The Evacuation Risk Assessment is conducted by Sonoma Technology, in partnership with UC Berkeley, Spatial Informatics Group & Reax Engineering, Fehr & Peers and Zonehaven.

This Risk Assessment is a planning tool only, it is not intended for use during a live evacuation. For evacuation information, please go to emergency.marincounty.org

We recommend readers start with reviewing the overview of the study, storymap and factsheets below

The results of this study include:

A brief overview of the study

A storymap

A Literature Review on the State-of-the-Science on Wildfire Evacuation

An Evacuation Risk Assessment Data Review

A current conditions assessment report of evacuation difficulty associated with fire and fuels (vegetation), communications & decision-making, and traffic flow

A GIS map viewer of current conditions, which includes contextual data, evacuation difficulty scores maps and already approved MWPA vegetation projects aiming at reducing risk. This viewer also includes Major and Minor evacuation roads as identified under AB 747 and high risk roads (as defined by Cal FIRE) that serve as the single egress for a minimum of 30 residential parcels.

Fire Risk factsheet

Roadway Risk factsheet

Communications factsheet

SB 99 and AB 747 factsheets


Approval Meeting

CEQA Documentation


Marin wild fire projects

Project Type

Lead Agency

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