This project includes the construction of a set of risk factors and dynamic models of wildfire spread, taking into account the communications processes and transportation networks to simulate the wildfire evacuation process in Marin County. Based on these risk factors and models, the proposal includes the development of an evacuation planning software application to simulate the effect of different risks as they would impact each road and roadway within the jurisdictions served by the MPWA member agencies.
This tool will help MWPA agencies prioritize areas of highest concern and help identify possible risk mitigation. The product will provide multiple layers of decision-making processes for MWPA members’ use. For strategic and policy level decisions, the initial development of the tool will allow users to see a geographic representation of the highest risk routes, and the factors that are driving the risk (fire risk conditions, roads and roadways conditions, traffic conditions, etc). For practitioners and technical staff, a second phase of the tool’s development will allow users to enter the parameters of a proposed mitigation project and assess its impact on risk. Work completed to address barriers to evacuation will be incorporated into the model to ensure its continued utility.
A Literature Review on the State-of-the-Science on Wildfire Evacuation.